Abstract: This paper aims to identify the main influencing factors of traffic safety on Sichuan-Tibet line, and to provide a scientific basis for improving the traffic safety situation and reducing the incidence of traffic accidents on this highway. Taking the G317 Naqu section of the Sichuan-Tibet line as the research object, we screened the main factors of road accidents, used the entropy weightcoefficient of variation-game combination method to calculate and analyze the weights of the important factors that caused the accidents, and then used the Bayesian network analysis method to classify the degree of road risk, and thus conducted a road safety risk evaluation on the Naqu section of the Sichuan-Tibet line. The results show that the road safety level in this region is low, and human factors and environmental factors are the important influencing factors among the four subsystems, and driving fatigue and weather factors are the important factors affecting road safety. Therefore, in the road safety management of the Naqu section of the Sichuan-Tibet Highway, appropriate measures should be formulated, focusing on human factors and environmental factors. For human factors, the supervision of driver fatigue driving should be strengthened to ensure that drivers have enough rest to reduce the phenomenon of fatigue driving; for environmental factors, it is necessary to establish a perfect weather monitoring and early warning system, and at the same time, in bad weather conditions, timely traffic control measures or release road information to drivers to guide their safe driving, so as to improve the level of traffic safety and reduce the incidence of accidents.

Key words: road safety evaluation; evaluation factors; coefficient of variation; game group method; Bayesian network analysis

摘要： 文章旨在识别川藏线交通安全的主要影响因素，为改善该线路交通安全状况、降低交 通事故发生率提供科学依据。以川藏线 G317 那曲段作为研究对象，对其道路交通事故发生的 主要因素进行筛选，采用熵权-变异系数-博弈组合法对引发事故的重要因素进行权重计算分 析，继而采用贝叶斯网络分析法对道路风险程度进行划分，并以此对川藏线那曲段道路进行 安全风险评价。结果表明，该区域的道路安全等级偏低，4 大子系统中人为因素和环境因素 为重要影响因素，疲劳驾驶和天气因素是影响道路安全的重要因子。由此可见，在川藏线那 曲段的交通安全管理中，应重点针对人为因素和环境因素制定相应措施。针对人为因素，应 加强对驾驶员疲劳驾驶的监管，确保驾驶员有足够的休息，以减少疲劳驾驶现象；针对环境 因素，需建立完善的天气监测和预警系统。同时，在恶劣天气条件下及时采取交通管制措施 或向驾驶员发布路况信息，引导其安全驾驶，从而提升交通安全水平，降低事故发生率。

关键词: 道路安全评价；评价因子；变异系数；博弈组合法；贝叶斯网络分析法