Abstract: Electric drive has become one of the important trends in the future transformation and development of the automobile industry, and the sales volume of pure electric new energy vehicles in China is growing rapidly. This paper takes the sales volume of pure electric vehicles in China from 2016 to 2020 as the original data, and forecasts the sales volume of pure electric vehicles in China from 2021 to 2025 by constructing the grey prediction model GM(1,1). It is found that the sales of pure electric vehicles in China will continue to rise from 2021 to 2015, and the sales of pure electric vehicles in 2025 will reach 2.308 million. The gray prediction model can accurately predict the development trend of pure electric vehicles in China, and can provide a certain reference for the government to formulate subsidy policies, promote pure electric vehicles, and enterprises' research and development, production and sales.

Key words: Grey prediction model GM (1,1); Pure electric vehicle; Sales forecast

摘要： 电力驱动成为汽车产业未来转型发展的重要趋势之一，中国纯电动新能源汽车销量快 速增长。文章以 2016—2020 年中国纯电动汽车的销量为原始数据，通过构建灰色预测模型 GM (1,1)，预测 2021—2025 年中国纯电动汽车的销量。研究发现，2021—2025 年中国纯电动 汽车销量呈不断上涨的趋势，2025 年纯电动汽车销量可达到 230.8 万辆。灰色预测模型能较 为精确地预测出中国纯电动汽车发展趋势，可为政府制定补贴政策、纯电动汽车推广和企业 的研发、生产和销售提供一定的参考依据。

关键词: 灰色预测模型 GM (1,1)；纯电动汽车；销量预测