Abstract: The risk of traffic accidents is becoming increasingly severe. To assist public security traffic management departments in assessing and managing traffic safety in urban areas, this study constructs an urban area traffic safety risk evaluation model based on "six-in-one" accident data from public security traffic police and data from the Xi'an statistical yearbook. First, relevant traffic safety risk indicators are comprehensively analyzed, and 12 indicators are selected for the model. Then, the weights of these indicators are determined using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method. Finally, the model is applied using data from Xi'an from 2021 to 2023, and quantile method is used to grade the traffic safety risks of different areas based on statistical theory. The results show significant differences in model assessments across temporal and spatial scales, aligning well with real-world conditions. This study provides valuable reference for public security traffic management departments in macro-level traffic risk assessment.

Key words: traffic safety; risk assessment; fuzzy analytic hierarchy process; entropy weight method

摘要： 交通事故风险日益严峻，为帮助公安交管部门对城市各区域的交通安全状况进行风险 评判和治理，研究基于公安交警“六合一”事故数据和西安市统计年鉴等数据，构建了一种 城市区域交通安全风险评价模型。首先，综合分析了城市交通安全相关的风险指标，并最终 选取了 12 个指标用于模型构建；然后，基于模糊层次分析法和熵权法对指标权重综合赋权； 最后，利用西安市 2021 至 2023 年的数据进行模型的实际应用，并基于统计学理论，选取分 位数法对各区域的交通安全风险进行分级。结果表明，在时间和空间尺度，模型评判结果具 有显著差异性并且与真实情况相符。为公安交管部门宏观评判区域交通风险提供一定的参考 价值。

关键词: 交通安全；风险评价；模糊层次分析法；熵权法