Abstract: In order to assist the public security traffic management department in assessing and managing road risk hazards, considering the characteristics of the commonly used "six-in-one" data, a road risk assessment method based on traffic accident data is proposed. Firstly, through mathematical derivation, it is concluded that a Poisson distribution model can be used to study the number of traffic accidents that occur on a certain road within a set unit time. Then, based on the Poisson distribution model, a method for assessing road risk is proposed. Finally, based on the road traffic accident data in Xi'an from 2020 to 2021, this method was practically applied. The results show that the assessment results obtained using this method are basically consistent with the actual situation. This method has certain reference value for the public security traffic management department to control road risks and manage potential safety hazards in a timely manner.

Key words: road traffic; risk assessment method; poisson distribution model; traffic accident data

摘要： 为帮助公安交管部门对道路风险隐患的评判和治理，考虑了常用的“六合一”数据的 特点，提出了一种基于交通事故数据的道路风险评判方法。首先，通过数学推导得出，可以 用泊松分布模型来研究某条道路在设定的单位时间内所发生的交通事故数量；然后，根据泊 松分布模型提出了道路风险的评判方法；最后，基于西安市在 2020－2021 年的道路交通事故 数据，将本方法进行了实际应用。结果表明，应用本方法得出的评判结果与真实情况相符。 该方法对于公安交管部门宏观把控道路风险和及时治理安全隐患具有一定的参考价值。

关键词: 道路交通；风险评判方法；泊松分布模型；交通事故数据