Abstract: In order to ensure the continuous and stable operation of automobile air conditioning system, the research goal is to find the most easily damaged parts. Based on the established structural model of the automotive air conditioning system, analyze the structure and working principle of the air conditioning system, and establish a fault tree model with the inability of the air conditioning to cool as the top event. Qualitative and quantitative analysis can be conducted based on the established fault tree model. Quantitative analysis can calculate the probability of the occurrence of the top event and the basic event that has the greatest impact on it. Qualitative analysis can determine the set of all events that have caused the top event and rank their correlation. Using Monte Carlo simulation to conduct simulation analysis on the system structure model, verifying the correctness and objectivity of the tree building results, the final conclusion is that the compressor is the most vulnerable component of the air conditioning system, and this component should be optimized and strengthened.

Key words: Fault tree model; Structural importance; Minimum cut set; Monte Carlo simulation

摘要： 为保证汽车空调系统持续稳定地运转，以寻找其最易损坏的部件为研究目标。根据建 立的汽车空调系统结构模型，对空调系统结构和工作原理进行分析，在此基础上以空调无法 制冷作为顶事件建立故障树模型。根据所建立的故障树模型进行定性和定量分析，定量分析 可以计算出顶事件的发生概率以及对其影响最大的基本事件，定性分析可以确定发生顶事件 的所有事件集合并对其相关度排序。采用蒙特卡罗模拟对系统结构模型进行仿真分析，验证 建树结果的正确性和客观性，最终得出结论为压缩机是空调系统最易损坏部件，应该优化和 加强该部件。

关键词: 故障树模型；结构重要度；最小割集；蒙特卡罗模拟