主办：陕西省汽车工程学会
ISSN 1671-7988  CN 61-1394/TH
创刊：1976年
汽车实用技术

汽车实用技术 ›› 2026, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (7): 62-69.DOI: 10.16638/j.cnki.1671-7988.2026.007.012

• 设计研究 • 上一篇    

交通运输碳排放预测及减排方法研究

陈丹 1，陈扬 1，于慧 2，饶文明 1，李瑞琦 1，任鹏超 1   

  1. 1.南京工程学院 交通工程学院； 2.南京林业大学 汽车与交通工程学院
  • 发布日期:2026-04-08
  • 通讯作者: 陈丹
  • 作者简介:陈丹（1988－），女，博士，副教授，研究方向为绿色交通与智能交通
  • 基金资助:
    江苏省自然科学基金面上基金项目（BK20241967）；教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目青年基金（24YJCZ H237）；国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（61903185）；南京工程学院大学生创新训练项目（2025112 76270X）；江苏高校“青蓝工程”项目

Research on Carbon Emission Prediction and Reduction Methods in Transportation

CHEN Dan1 , CHEN Yang1 , YU Hui2 , RAO Wenming1 , LI Ruiqi1 , REN Pengchao1   

  1. 1.College of Transportation Engineering, Nanjing Institute of Technology; 2.College of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University
  • Published:2026-04-08
  • Contact: CHEN Dan

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摘要： 为实现“双碳”目标，交通运输业亟须破解高排放难题，推动绿色低碳高质量发展。 论文聚焦交通运输 CO2 排放预测及减排方法研究，首先，构建交通运输 CO2 排放微观测算模 型，提出基于动态线性增长模型的交通运输 CO2 排放中长期预测方法；进而构建单要素视角 和多要素视角下的交通运输 CO2 排放效率测算模型，提出基于 K-means 聚类的 CO2 排放区域 差异性分析方法；在此基础上，创新性提出基于市场机制的交通运输减排总体框架和组织机 制，构建了区域差异性交通运输减排模型。通过实例分析验证了所提方法的有效性。研究表 明，在区域差异性政策下，我国东部地区各省市交通运输平均节能率、减排率可以达到 26.34%、 30.95%，平均排放效率提升了 46.44%，相较于对比模型，平均减排率、排放效率分别提高了 9.33%、25.80%。

关键词: 交通运输规划与管理；CO2 排放；中长期预测；区域差异性减排方法；碳排放权交易

Abstract: :In order to achieve the goal of "double carbon", the transportation industry urgently needs to solve the problem of high emissions and promote green, low-carbon and high-quality development. This paper focuses on the research of CO2 emission prediction and reduction methods in transportation. Firstly, a micro-observation model for CO2 emissions in transportation is constructed, and a medium and long-term prediction method for CO2 emissions in transportation based on the dynamic linear growth model is proposed. Then, CO2 emission efficiency measurement models from single-factor and multi-factor perspectives are constructed, and a CO2 emission regional difference analysis method based on K-means clustering is proposed. On this basis, an overall framework and organizational mechanism for transportation emission reduction based on market mechanisms are innovatively proposed, and a regional difference transportation emission reduction model is constructed. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is verified through case analysis. The research shows that under regional difference policies, the average energy conservation rate and emission reduction rate of transportation in various provinces and cities in eastern China can reach 26.34% and 30.95%, respectively, and the average emission efficiency can be improved by 46.44%. Compared with the comparison model, the average emission reduction rate and emission efficiency have been improved by 9.33% and 25.80%, respectively.

Key words: transportation planning and management; CO2 emissions; medium-and long-term prediction; regional difference emission reduction methods; carbon emission rights trading