关键词: 交通安全；风险评价；模糊层次分析法；熵权法

Abstract: The risk of traffic accidents is becoming increasingly severe. To assist public security traffic management departments in assessing and managing traffic safety in urban areas, this study constructs an urban area traffic safety risk evaluation model based on "six-in-one" accident data from public security traffic police and data from the Xi'an statistical yearbook. First, relevant traffic safety risk indicators are comprehensively analyzed, and 12 indicators are selected for the model. Then, the weights of these indicators are determined using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method. Finally, the model is applied using data from Xi'an from 2021 to 2023, and quantile method is used to grade the traffic safety risks of different areas based on statistical theory. The results show significant differences in model assessments across temporal and spatial scales, aligning well with real-world conditions. This study provides valuable reference for public security traffic management departments in macro-level traffic risk assessment.

Key words: traffic safety; risk assessment; fuzzy analytic hierarchy process; entropy weight method