关键词: 故障树模型；结构重要度；最小割集；蒙特卡罗模拟

Abstract: In order to ensure the continuous and stable operation of automobile air conditioning system, the research goal is to find the most easily damaged parts. Based on the established structural model of the automotive air conditioning system, analyze the structure and working principle of the air conditioning system, and establish a fault tree model with the inability of the air conditioning to cool as the top event. Qualitative and quantitative analysis can be conducted based on the established fault tree model. Quantitative analysis can calculate the probability of the occurrence of the top event and the basic event that has the greatest impact on it. Qualitative analysis can determine the set of all events that have caused the top event and rank their correlation. Using Monte Carlo simulation to conduct simulation analysis on the system structure model, verifying the correctness and objectivity of the tree building results, the final conclusion is that the compressor is the most vulnerable component of the air conditioning system, and this component should be optimized and strengthened.

Key words: Fault tree model; Structural importance; Minimum cut set; Monte Carlo simulation