主办:陕西省汽车工程学会
ISSN 1671-7988  CN 61-1394/TH
创刊:1976年

汽车实用技术 ›› 2023, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (12): 196-202.DOI: 10.16638/j.cnki.1671-7988.2023.012.037

• 标准·法规·管理 • 上一篇    

基于大数据与双积分政策的产品规划

薛海涛,包辛煜   

  1. 湖南大学 机械与运载工程学院
  • 出版日期:2023-06-30 发布日期:2023-06-30
  • 通讯作者: 包辛煜
  • 作者简介:薛海涛(1982-),男,博士,高级工程师,研究方向为汽车产业大数据,E-mail:haitao.xue@sgmw.com.cn。

Product Planning Based on Big Data and Double Points Policy

XUE Haitao, BAO Xinyu *   

  1. College of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering, Hunan University
  • Online:2023-06-30 Published:2023-06-30
  • Contact: BAO Xinyu

摘要: 在整个汽车生态系统研究中,政策对于产品规划影响巨大,车企发展的基准依托于国 家政策,任何车企要想健康长久地发展,离不开国家政策的支持,因此,研究政策因素对于 未来车企的发展规划具有重要的意义,但是在传统的新能源汽车产品规划中,并没有考虑政 策因素的影响,因此,文章基于大数据的角度并结合国家双积分政策开展了研究,实现了从 政策角度构建利润模型,进而提出未来的产品规划意见。首先利用灰色时间序列函数模型对 汽车销量及产量进行预测;其次结合预测数据及国家有关于双积分政策的相关规定建立新能 源汽车双积分政策补贴利润模型;最后选取上汽通用五菱的代表车型五菱宏光 Mini EV 进行 案例分析,并依据利润模型对五菱未来新能源汽车产品提出规划意见。通过案例分析验证了 该模型的适用性,具有一定的实用意义。

关键词: 大数据;双积分政策;灰色时间序列函数;政策补贴利润模型;产品规划

Abstract: Across the entire automotive ecosystem, policy has a huge impact on product planning. The benchmark for the development of vehicle companies relies on national policies. If any vehicle company wants to develop healthily and long-term, it is inseparable from the support of national policies. Therefore, the study of policy factors is of great significance for the development planning of future car companies. However, in traditional new energy vehicle product planning, the impact of policy factors is not considered. Therefore, this paper conducts research based on the perspective of big data and combine with the national double-point policy, realizes the construction of a profit model from a policy perspective, and then puts forward future product planning opinions. Firstly, use the grey time series function model to forecast the sales and production of vehicles; Secondly, combine with the forecast data and the relevant national regulations on the double-point policy, establish a new energy vehicle double-point policy subsidy profit model; Finally, the representative model of SAIC-GM-Wuling Wuling Hongguang Mini EV is selected for case analysis, and based on the profit model, it puts forward planning opinions on Wuling's future new energy vehicle products. The applicability of the model is verified by case analysis, which has certain practical significance.

Key words: Big data; Double points policy; Grey time series function; Policy subsidy profit model; Product planning