关键词: 道路安全评价；评价因子；变异系数；博弈组合法；贝叶斯网络分析法

Abstract: This paper aims to identify the main influencing factors of traffic safety on Sichuan-Tibet line, and to provide a scientific basis for improving the traffic safety situation and reducing the incidence of traffic accidents on this highway. Taking the G317 Naqu section of the Sichuan-Tibet line as the research object, we screened the main factors of road accidents, used the entropy weightcoefficient of variation-game combination method to calculate and analyze the weights of the important factors that caused the accidents, and then used the Bayesian network analysis method to classify the degree of road risk, and thus conducted a road safety risk evaluation on the Naqu section of the Sichuan-Tibet line. The results show that the road safety level in this region is low, and human factors and environmental factors are the important influencing factors among the four subsystems, and driving fatigue and weather factors are the important factors affecting road safety. Therefore, in the road safety management of the Naqu section of the Sichuan-Tibet Highway, appropriate measures should be formulated, focusing on human factors and environmental factors. For human factors, the supervision of driver fatigue driving should be strengthened to ensure that drivers have enough rest to reduce the phenomenon of fatigue driving; for environmental factors, it is necessary to establish a perfect weather monitoring and early warning system, and at the same time, in bad weather conditions, timely traffic control measures or release road information to drivers to guide their safe driving, so as to improve the level of traffic safety and reduce the incidence of accidents.

Key words: road safety evaluation; evaluation factors; coefficient of variation; game group method; Bayesian network analysis